Inside the Hidden Cycles That Rule Markets and Life - Odd Lots

Este contenido tiene más de 4 años

Too much to listen and too little time...

 

My rating: ★★★☆☆ (3/5)

Pointers:

 
  • 3:23 – Guest Peter Borish, chief strategist at Quad Group. Recruited by Tudor Jones 1985.

 

  • 6:32 – In futures markets your risk management has to be more sophisticated because you can lose money much more quickly. “The success in every trading business is about worrying about risk not about the reward so much… Making money means limiting your losses.”

 

  • 9:26 – Borish talks about his experience and research before the 1987 crash and how he anticipated it.

 

  • 12:29 – Cycles. Fear Vs Greed, Complacency Vs Uncertainty.

 

  • 15:27 – If you look at history we haven’t seen too many economies that have grown by building walls and looking inward. We are potentially at the end of another long cycle.

 

  • 16:10 – The deflationary pressures continue to build up.

 

  • 16:33 – What we’re seeing in this cycle is that the thing that you don’t need have gone down (devices and electronics) in price and the things that you do need have gone up (education and healthcare).

 

  • 17:21 – About Cycles, their intervals in nature and Fibonacci.

 

  • 21:31 – About Edward Dewey[1] and what did you learn from him.

 

  • 23:10 – Data sets. And the difference between the data the market saw and the revised data that one can get from historical series. There are 3 important numbers: (i)the expected number; (ii)the actual number that the market saw; (iii)and the revisions.

 

  • 28:13 – “Creeping intellectual cheating”. It is not that you intent to cheat, but because you don’t fully understand or because you haven’t made those mistakes yet that thing are overoptimized. That’s where experience comes into play.

  • 29:00 – It’s a very humble business. You think you are smart but you’re really not that smart.

 

  • 29:25 – How to use models, data and cycles better? It’s a map but you have to use risk management to manage your timing.

 

  • 31:14 – “It’s all about maintaining your discipline and your process.”

 

  • 31:30 – The best approach is when both the fundamentals and technical are coming together.

 

  • 33:23 – We can’t compete with algorithms in short-run trading. And in log-run trading is difficult to outperform the Index. We try to be a combination of man and machine in 1 week to 3 months.

 

  • 34:25 – Human nature is: We want to be smart. I’ve learned a long ago that I’m not. I try to stay with the trend and not try to pick the bottom or the top.

 

  • 34:45 – I need to have a risk management tool that’s gonna take me out so I don’t get buried.

 

  • 35:25 –  On the importance of making a plan ahead of time with anticipation, cool-headed and unemotionally.

 

 

Listen to it: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-10/odd-lots-inside-the-hidden-cycles-that-rule-markets-history-and-everyday-life

 

 

NOTES:

[1] http://cyclesresearchinstitute.org/cycles-research/general/dewey/

 

 

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